Is UK air cooling a policy blind spot?

Rinnai’s Tony Gittings looks at the future demand and effects of air cooling on domestic and commercial properties as global temperatures rise. What will the effect of air cooling be on the national electrical grid and UK/European Net Zero ambitions? 

UK energy policy is firmly centered on reducing fossil fuels and increasing renewables. At present there is no mention of a future increase in demand for commercial and domestic cooling and air conditioning technologies that will influence energy demand and Net Zero aims.  

A recent article in The Independent quoted a survey by insurer Direct Line questioning London estate agents on air conditioning demand, saying: “Some 95% of estate agents are seeing an increase in demand for homes with air conditioning as temperatures rise, a survey has suggested. More than four in five agents also reported a rise in homes coming to the market with built-in air conditioning.” 

This suggests that air conditioning is at the very least a sought-after luxury, if not becoming a ‘must have’ appliance. A sharp rise in future UK cooling & air conditioning unit demand is expected and the extra power they require will put strain onto the electrical grid. 

Last June when temperatures exceeded 30°C (86˚F) the national grid had to use coal to meet the power demand created by air conditioning usage. This was the first time in 48 days the UK grid had to use fossil fuels.  

According to Statista, the UK air cooling market is expected to experience an annual growth rate of 3.78% between 2024 and 2029, with anticipated growth of 2.9% in 2025.  

Looking to Europe 

International usage of air-cooling units is also expanding due to sharp rises in regional temperatures. Southern France, Italy and Spain now regularly experience 40°C+ heat in the summer months, and have all had to limit air cooling temperatures so they don’t place too much strain on the electrical grid.  

According to Idealista, a European real estate company, 41% of Spanish housing stock is equipped with air cooling technology. The Spanish air conditioner market is expected grow by 4.25% annually from 2024 to 2029.  

In 2022, Spain had to introduce energy use reduction measures following the Ukraine invasion and successive heatwaves that have been attributed to global warming. Spanish authorities maintain concerned that an increase of electrical demand from air cooling technology could potentially lead to grid malfunctions. 

Italy has also experienced grid difficulties that amount to periodic blackouts, specifically in Milan during July 2024, with a spike in air cooling technology thought to be a major contributing factor. 

Growth in Italian air cooling is also projected to increase sharply in the coming years, with annual growth rates of 6.96% from 2024 to 2029. 

France is another country affected by a rise in uncomfortable summer season temperatures. French purchases of air conditioning technology are projected to increase over the coming years, with a domestic market annual growth rate of 8.45% between 2024 and 2029 and volume growth of 8.5% in 2025. 

Separate national electric grids from across notable economies in Europe are struggling to provide energy demand that satisfies domestic and commercial air-cooling requirements during elevated temperatures. UK, European and international growth in air conditioning units is expected to rise in the coming years with electrical grids requiring updating and maintenance to deal with added demand. 

UK, European, and global Net Zero objectives will be impacted by an expansion in air-cooling technology usage due to the added pressure they impose on electrical grids. In a global movement towards electrification supplied by renewables, national infrastructure that transports electrical energy requires updating costing billions in finances and many hours of intricate labour. 

It could be argued that grid complications will undoubtedly become more prevalent while rising global temperatures cause customers to seek air cooling solutions for their properties. Rinnai is determined to keep customers informed of any changes relating to policy amendments and nuances that affect customer energy options and choice.         

www.rinnai-uk.co.uk